The Lab

Macro conditions, positioning and valuation — the context behind the chart.

Illustrative data. The metrics and sources below are the right ones, but the numbers are generated, not live. Positioning would come from NGX Domestic & Foreign Portfolio Investment reports for equities and CFTC Commitments of Traders for metals and FX; fundamentals from company filings.

Inflation (CPI)NBS

24.3%▼ 0.5

y/y, headline

Cooling from the peak but still far above the CBN's 6–9% target band.

Policy Rate (MPR)CBN

27.50%▬

held at last MPC

Real rates are now positive, which is what finally slowed the naira's slide.

GDP GrowthNBS

3.4%▲ 0.3

q/q, non-oil led

Services and agriculture carrying it; oil output still the swing factor.

External ReservesCBN

$38.2bn▲ 0.9

≈ 8 months import cover

Cover above six months is what keeps foreign investors willing to hold naira assets.

Oil ProductionOPEC

1.51 mbpd▲ 0.04

crude, ex condensate

Every 100k bpd is roughly $2.5bn a year of federal revenue at $70 Brent.

USD / NGNNAFEM

₦1,548▲ 0.28

official window

A weaker naira lifts naira gold and squeezes importer margins.

Read these together: inflation above the policy rate means negative real returns and a weak currency; reserves and oil output decide how long the CBN can defend the naira. Those two relationships drive most of what happens on the NGX.